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Monthly Economic Update - February 2020

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3 KEY INSIGHTS

  • Outlook for 2020 will be a balance between growth and stability

  • Mixed Impact of COVID-19 on SL Businesses so far; Concerns on supply chain disruptions   

  • Global Economy and Trade growth Recovery could be derailed by COVID-19 

 

Sri Lankan Economy

Outlook 2020: Growth Vs Stability: The Chamber launched its outlook publication for 2020, where the theme was on growth and stability. The recent stimulus measures provided by the government would improve the growth outlook but must be accompanied by structural reforms that will maintain the growth momentum. More details on the report

Mix Impact of COVID-19 on SL Businesses: The Chamber conducted a survey with its members on the impact of COVID-19 so far. 49% of the firms stated that there was an impact while 40% also stated there was downward impact on sales in the period surveyed. More details on the survey

Trade Deficit falls by 23% in 2019: During 2019, the trade deficit contracted by USD 2.35 Bn to USD 7.99 Bn owing to decline in motor vehicle imports and uptick in textiles and garments exports.

Private Sector Credit and Worker Remittance Inflows record a high in December 2019: Private sector credit growth in 2019 grew the most during the month of December.  Further, during December USD 655 Mn worth of workers’ remittances was received by Sri Lanka making it the highest monthly inflow for 2019. 

 

 

Global Economy

Global Economy Recovery Could be Derailed by COVID-19: : IMF warned that the spreading of COVID-19 may pose risks to global economy’s fragile recovery as COVID-19 epidemic has already disrupted production in China and could affect other countries through tourism, supply chains linkages and commodity prices.

WTO Signals Further Weakening of Trade in Q1-2020: The WTO Goods Trade Barometer signals that, global merchandise trade growth is likely to weak in Q1-2020 and performance could be further reduced by the outbreak of COVID-19.

Global Oil Prices Fell owing to COVID-19: Value of OPEC Reference Basket declined by 2.1% on a m-o-m basis to an average of USD 65.10 per barrel in January on the back of concerns of outbreak of COVID-19.

 

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Research Analyst - Economic Intelligence Unit, The Ceylon Chamber of Commerce

Saumya Amarasiriwardane

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